![]() The new XP pushed us over the edge in 2015, but missed XPs do not explain weird score frequency on their own. (Note: While it’s easy to point a finger at the new XP distance as the cause of weird scores, recall that the multitude of NFL seasons with XP conversion rates similar to or worse than 2015's rate (94.2%) produced very normal scores, including the most normal scores in NFL history. Were 2015's margins of victory actually different, or were we just paying more attention to the weird ones because of the new XP and strange scores? Let’s explore. Think back to how it felt when your kicker missed an extra point (XP), you saw a line you thought was funky, or you lost a bet because you had a favorite minus 2.5 that missed an XP and won by two instead of three. C onsider Steelers-Bengals in the Wild Card (18-16), Broncos-Patriots in the AFC Championship (20-18), or if Denver missed their two-point conversion late in the Super Bowl (and won 22-10 instead of 24-10). ![]() ![]() Beyond the cultural significance of seeing “traditional football scores” give way to 18-16, 35-18, 26-20, 20-18, and 49-15 (all in the 2015 playoffs alone) – and their annual impact on Super Bowl Squares probabilities – we began to wonder how weird scores might also affect margins of victory, which carry more practical implications than mere (and admittedly strange) intrigue.Īnecdotally, it sure seemed like 2015's weird scores were messing with traditional NFL margins of victory. ![]()
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